Bitcoin Price Analysis: Will BTC Break $88K or Dive Below $81K? (April 16, 2025)

Date: April 16, 2025
Timeframe Analyzed: 1D (Daily Chart)
Market Pair: BTC/USDT

Introduction

Bitcoin Price Analysis offers insights into market trends and price movements of Bitcoin. Bitcoin continues to trade within a crucial range, and traders are now asking the big question: Will BTC break out above the $88K resistance or revisit its $76K support levels?
This article delivers a detailed analysis based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC), ICT Models, Elliott Wave Theory, and Fractal Patterns, helping both short-term and swing traders position themselves for the next big move.

Market Structure & Smart Money Concepts (SMC)

Bitcoin recently confirmed a Change of Character (CHoCH) when it reversed from its all-time high of $105K and began forming lower highs, with the most recent one near $88K. This shift suggests a potential distribution phase as per SMC theory. Our Bitcoin Price Analysis covers both short-term and long-term market predictions.

Key Observations:

• CHoCH Confirmed: From $105K to a lower high near $88K.

• Break of Structure (BOS): Downside BOS at $91K confirms short-term bearish momentum.

• Bearish Order Block: Strong OB detected between $86K–$88K — a crucial resistance zone where sellers are active.

•  Liquidity Sweep:

  • Sell-side liquidity below $76K was swept recently.

  • Buy-side liquidity remains uncollected above $88K — possible upside target.

• Fair Value Gap (FVG): Between $81K–$82K — likely to act as a magnet, drawing price down for imbalance filling.

ICT Model Insights

From the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) framework, BTC displayed a classic Judas Swing — a liquidity grab below $76K followed by a strong rebound. This move often signals smart money manipulation before a true directional push.

PD Array Zones:

• 🔺 Resistance: $88K — confluence of a bearish OB and buy-side liquidity.

• 🔻 Support: $81K — aligns with the FVG and discounted pricing zone.

Elliott Wave Analysis

Based on the current cycle:

• Wave 1: July to September 2024 (initial move)

• Wave 3: November to February — rally to $105K (extended wave)

• Wave 4: Pullback to $76K — likely complete

• Projected Wave 5 Target: $115K+ if bullish continuation holds

This structure aligns well with historical Bitcoin supercycles, where Wave 5 typically delivers exponential growth post-correction.

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Fractal Comparison

BTC’s current structure mirrors the November 2023 to January 2024 range-bound action:

• Accumulation → breakout → retest → continuation rally.

If this fractal repeats, a parabolic move beyond $100K is well within reach over the next few weeks.

Key Technical Levels

Strategy Summary

• Short-Term Bias: Cautiously Bullish

• Entry Zone: Retest near $82K (FVG + OB)

• Stop Loss: Below $79.5K

• Take Profit Zones:

  • TP1: $88K

  • TP2: $92K

  • TP3: $98K

• Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1:5, with high confluence based on multi-model alignment.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin remains in a critical decision zone. While $88K holds as a strong resistance, the liquidity dynamics and unfilled FVG around $81K–$82K present a high-probability trade setup. Traders are advised to monitor daily candle closures, as they will likely dictate whether BTC launches into Wave 5 toward $115K or revisits support near $76K.

Stay sharp, manage your risk, and watch the liquidity — smart money leaves a trail. Bitcoin Price Analysis helps investors gauge the potential risks and rewards in the market.

Disclaimer

This article reflects my personal view and analysis based on various technical strategies including Smart Money Concepts (SMC), ICT, and Elliott Wave Theory. It does not constitute financial advice.
Please do your own research (DYOR) and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions in cryptocurrencies.
Crypto investments are subject to high market risk. Trade responsibly.