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Bitcoin Facing Potential Price Crash Based on Previous Cycles
Bitcoin has seen immense volatility in 2023, with prices crashing from all-time highs.
However, an analysis of previous market cycles shows striking similarities that point to a potential further BTC price decline before the next bull run.
Bitcoin Repeat Fractal Suggests Further Downside
In multiple metrics, the current Bitcoin market looks ominously similar to the sharp decline seen in 2019-2020 before the strong 2021 bull run:
- In 2019, BTC fell 42% from its previous all-time high made in late 2017. Similarly, BTC is currently 41% below its November 2021 all-time high.
- During capitulation in 2019, BTC dumped 73% from the key 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level from the 2017 peak. Currently, BTC is bouncing at this same 0.786 level.
- 322 days before the 2020 mining reward halving, BTC had crashed 73% from 2019 highs. We are now 322 days away from the 2024 halving with BTC up 100% from 2022 lows.
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Historical Price Boxes Suggest Potential Target
Additionally, there are similar Bitcoin “price boxes” between the two cycles – ranging from $13k-14k in 2019 versus $50k-52k currently, and $4k-5k historical support versus $21k-23k current support.
If history repeats, Bitcoin could see a retest of the current range of lows between $22k-25k. For investors, this may represent a significant buying opportunity before the next supply shock and bull run.
As always, past performance does not guarantee future results. But the striking similarities across metrics are worth noting for savvy crypto investors looking to maximize returns.
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